A Few Thoughts on Sotomayor

May 27th, 2009 by Nick Saint

  • How about that? An enthusiastic reception and the most flattering picture I’ve seen of her from the New York Post. Hometown love trumps ideology. Incidentally, you can count on seeing a headline reading ‘SOTOMAJORITY’ the first time she writes an important majority opinion. It’s not quite as obvious in advance as the ‘Exit Sandman‘ headline we’ll see in 2010, but it’s close.
  • The controversy over Sotomayor’s ‘wise Latina’ comments doesn’t, I think, have legs. It really is superficially offensive, pace the counter-outrage on the left, and I’m still not wild about it in context. At the very least, she could have been more careful with her words. But it’s pretty clear that she was referring to judgement on issues concerning women and minorities. She didn’t mean that a wise Latina will just be a better judge than a white man in general, though that is what she said. She will no doubt get grilled about this, but it won’t change the fact that she is a shoo-in.
  • All the griping about identity politics and affirmative action is ugly. It’s all well and good to argue against preferential treatment and lowered standards on the basis of race as a general practice, but if you really think Sotomayor is a mediocre talent who got the nod because she is hispanic, then clearly the part to focus on is that she is a mediocre talent. Your empirical evidence for this fact is what lead you to conclude that racial preferences are afoot, right? The theory about Obama’s motivations is really just a side show, not particularly germane to the discussion. Of course, it’s a lot easier to demonstrate that someone is a Latina than that she is incompetent. But laziness is no defense for racism.
  • You will hear a lot about how Sotomayor’s decisions are overturned at a high rate. Nate Silver points out that this is based on a very small sample, and that the sample actually shows the opposite. So you can put that in the straightforward lie file. The Volokh Conspiracy tries to plug Sotomayor into the results of a more rigorous statistical study, which shows her to be more or less in the middle of the pack. The methodology is murky at best, though. I doubt that there is any statistical shortcut here - if you want to figure out how smart and capable a judge is, you just have to read some of her opinions. Alternatively, you could acknowledge that she will be confirmed, for good or ill, and change the channel.

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