Frederick has gone on record before in this space saying that Twitter won’t last. I’m not sure if I mentioned it at the time, but I hope it went without saying that I agree with him. As recently as a few months ago, this was more or less the conventional wisdom amongst sensible people, but it is rapidly becoming a reactionary, crank position. Nonsense.
Part of the confusion comes, I think, from running together the future of Twitter with the future of what the kids are calling ’social media’ in general. When people who get really excited by social media talk about it, it’s a lot like people talking about Derrida: full of jargon and buzz words, signifying nothing. But to the extent that the term ’social media’ more or less picks out a set of media that are more or less kinda distinct from other media, it is true that social media are here to stay, that they’ve had a serious impact on the way people communicate and gather information, and that they will continue to do so. No argument there.
Social media has a big future, but isn’t part of that future - or, at least, it is not an important part of that future. Picking winners and losers in these situations is generally a suckers game - a while back, everyone seemed pretty convinced that Facebook had passed it’s prime and was on the verge of losing out to MySpace. They look fairly silly now.
But Twitter is different. The question isn’t whether Twitter will survive or be replaced by a product that executes the same idea better. In fact, the execution of Twitter is terrific, as far as I can tell. It’s the underlying concept that sucks.
Indeed the premise of Twitter is completely ass-backwards. Facebook has contributed exactly zero in the way of major innovation. But it has done a good job of aggregating existing innovation and packaging it well. Why on earth would I want to have a network of friend profiles at Friendster and a forum for sharing my photos at Flickr when I can do both, and more, at Facebook?
Twitter works on the opposite model. Everyone loves status updates, so wouldn’t it be neat to have a site dedicated exclusively to them? After all of Twitter’s success, the answer to that question is still: no, it wouldn’t be neat, it would be incredibly fucking stupid. Absolutely nothing is gained by splitting this function off into a separate venue.
Twitter took off anyway, because they did a great job with this idea. People could update their status from a phone without internet access; this sort of idea has been around forever (I briefly experimented with a service where a robot would read me my email over the phone more than a decade ago), but this was the first really useful implementation. Status update junkies couldn’t get this at Facebook or anywhere else. And the organization of Twitter is excellent. Retweeting, @tweeting, and the rest of it created a network of status update conversations that didn’t exist anywhere else.
Unfortunately, none of that justifies the existence of Twitter in the first place. Phones without access to the internet are presumably not long for this earth, but if that function does continue to be useful for some reason, there is no reason everyone else can’t simply adopt it. Meanwhile, Facebook has been jazzing up its status update system for a while, and now they’re flat out ripping off the rest of what makes Twitter unique. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone - Facebook and sites like it have always been where tweeting belongs.